Model skill assessment is a very important tool, particularly in the current environment of constantly evolving ecosystem models.
Ecosystem forecasting is limited by a number of factors including inadequate initialization information, unknown boundary conditions, inaccurate model physics & atmospheric forcing functions, & inadequate algorithm development of geomorphic & ecological responses to geophysical processes. Moreover, establishing skill levels in coastwide forecasting is also limited by inadequate validation data & the ambiguity of defining skill. The development of a coastwide ecosystem forecasting system, such as those developed by the CLEAR Program is imperative to explore the consequences of these issues.
The CLEAR Program is building a comprehensive ecosystem forecasting system that links geophysical processes, geomorphic features, & ecological succession for one subprovince at a time to establish the skill of various models. The endpoints from these modules will be used to quantify environmental benefits & risk assessments.
Efforts are underway to design an ecosystem forecasting system using a dual approach in supporting the development of different modeling skills, while also developing individual modules that integrate modeling, monitoring, data management, & risk assessment skill sets.