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An Uncertainty Analysis Framework for the CLEAR Ecosystem Model: Using Barataria Basin as the Test Domain and Skill Assessment

CLEAR Vol III 2006

This report is an expansion of the CLEAR 2003 & 2004 reports, & it focuses principally on identifying & quantifying sources of knowledge uncertainty that enter forecasts of salinity in the Barataria Basin under two operational scenarios for the Davis Pond freshwater diversion. The analysis and discussion of uncertainty in this report are organized around three themes: 1) the effect of aggregation over time & space; 2) the effect of uncertainty in the rainfall & salinity data used to calibrate the salinity box model; & 3) the influence of uncertainty in salinity predictions on the evaluation of a restoration scenario.